{"id":320,"date":"2018-03-15T15:48:39","date_gmt":"2018-03-15T19:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tameri.com\/wordpress\/almostclassical\/?p=320"},"modified":"2023-11-25T22:32:57","modified_gmt":"2023-11-26T04:32:57","slug":"exit-polls-and-data-what-pa-18-house-race-suggests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tameri.com\/almostclassical\/2018\/03\/15\/exit-polls-and-data-what-pa-18-house-race-suggests\/","title":{"rendered":"Exit Polls and Data: What PA-18 House Race Suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"

Outside groups, the two major political parties, and individuals spent a lot of money on a campaign for the PA-18 Congressional District special election this month. The March 13, 2018, election was atypical for many reasons, from its origins in a sex scandal to the fact the district doesn\u2019t exist anymore.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s right. Millions of dollars were spent on a race for a job lasting mere months<\/strong>. In November, the current PA-18 changes dramatically, with most of the current PA-18 destined to become PA-14, while PA-18 will be compressed into Pittsburgh<\/a>. Vox offers both the old and new congressional maps for comparison<\/a>. The new maps are logical and cohesive politically, based more on city and county boundaries than the maps before the March 13 election of Conor Lamb (D).<\/p>\n

Any discussion of what PA-18 \u201cmeans\u201d for Democrats and Republicans in 2018, therefore, has to be taken with several grains of salt. The PA-18 that did exist was heavily gerrymandered for the GOP<\/a>\u2019s advantage \u2014 and that didn\u2019t last as the district demographics changed over a decade. The new district for Lamb will be PA-17 and a swing district balanced between parties in terms of voter participation.<\/p>\n

What we know from the exit polls, however, is bad news for the Republicans. (Then again, the new congressional map is horrible news, by comparison, likely costing Republicans three or more House seats.)<\/p>\n