Visalia Direct: Virtual Valley
\nDecember 6, 2010 Deadline
\nJanuary 2011 Issue<\/p>\n
Virtual Valley Predictions for 2011<\/strong><\/p>\n Prognostication is a year-round sport in the technology industry, with everyone trying to anticipate the \u201cNext Big Thing.\u201d Few analysts guess the trends, but since it is the start of a new year, time to offer some predictions from the Virtual Valley crystal ball.<\/p>\n The five predictions I offer share a common theme: with media going digital, traditional broadcasters and retailers are going to struggle. As newspapers and magazines have fallen to Web surfing, the next earthquakes will strike the film and television industries.<\/p>\n Prediction 1: Cable and satellite television subscribers will reduce or terminate their monthly services.<\/strong><\/p>\n When the Fresno State Football Bulldogs beat Illinois 25-23 on December 3, I wasn\u2019t near a television, but I was still watching the game live and in high-definition. I was watching the broadcast free via the ESPN website, as Visalia\u2019s Ryan Colburn led the Bulldogs to victory.<\/p>\n As the game ended, I realized it was early Saturday morning where I was sitting, more than 2000 miles away from Fresno. For a brief moment, I was amazed by how much things have changed in the last decade.<\/p>\n If I want to watch a sporting event or television show, I\u2019m as likely to be staring at a computer screen as a television. I watch everything from football to 2010 campaign coverage on my laptop and iPod Touch while sitting in coffee shops, airports and hotel rooms. I don\u2019t have to wait to see anything, no matter where I am.<\/p>\n Cable providers have tried to respond to Internet video by offering \u201cexclusive\u201d on-demand content. The problem for cable and satellite companies is that most of what I want to watch, I can get online from several different sources. Even content that isn\u2019t free is cheaper online than subscribing to premium services.<\/p>\n Prediction 2: Televisions will be more like computers, and computers more like television.<\/strong><\/p>\n Many people have taken the next step and attached home computers to their HD televisions. The Mac Mini is a great little computer; I personally own one and love it. The benefit of attaching a computer to your television is that you can switch between surfing the Web and watching movies. I find myself searching the Web for information about the films I watch. I\u2019ve even had the script for the new \u201cStar Trek\u201d on screen while watching the movie.<\/p>\n Television manufacturers have noticed this and aren\u2019t about to cede the living room or family room to Apple and Microsoft. By the end of 2011, I expect at least half of new televisions to be Internet-ready hybrids.<\/p>\n The Samsung Smart TVs<\/a> incorporate Internet-ready computer hardware within HD televisions. These televisions connect to your home network, either via a standard Ethernet cable or wireless router. Samsung has the Samsung App market, which looks a lot like iTunes<\/a>. Remember, these televisions are really computers in disguise. You can even add a keyboard or video game controllers.<\/p>\n Prediction 3: Netflix, Amazon Rentals and iTunes kill the video store.<\/strong><\/p>\n You can already attach various devices to your television to access movies and television content. Most video game consoles offer Netflix or similar on-demand video rentals. If you don\u2019t intend to play games, an Apple TV<\/a> is only $99 and offers both iTunes and Netflix content. Amazon is also launching Amazon Rentals in 2011 and is rumored to have a device similar to Apple TV planned.<\/p>\n We\u2019ve already witnessed the slow and painful demise of video rental stores. Sadly, 2011 will see that trend accelerate. I\u2019m not sure any traditional rental locations will survive another year. Vending machines might be the last physical DVD rental<\/a> sites.<\/p>\n On-demand rentals aren\u2019t the only challenge to brick-and-mortar rental chains. The prices of new films on DVD have fallen dramatically over the last decade. We know which films we are likely to enjoy, so rentals don\u2019t offer much value to us.<\/p>\n Prediction 4: CD and DVD sections in physical stores continue to shrink.<\/strong><\/p>\n Throughout 2011, major retailers will cut CD selections even more than they have, possibly eliminating their music sections by the end of the year. I have been in two major discount stores that had no discernable music sections. One store had a single rack of popular country, pop and Spanish-language music. Everything on the rack was the latest from big-name acts. Forget trying to locate anything \u201cclassic\u201d or even from last year.<\/p>\n