The 2020 election is less than a month away and Democratic consultants have raised concerns that some “movement slogans” could cost the party seats in suburban districts. I’m not taking a position in this post. Instead, I want to explain the concerns consultants have and why those concerns might be valid.
The House races matter a lot to Democrats when it seems certain the Senate is going to be a divided so closely that one or two Senators will be able to derail any legislation. The Senate will remain the place bills go to die.
Losing the House? That would be a worst-case scenario for Democrats… yet it could happen.
In a year with so much at stake, losing seats in the House of Representatives could be disastrous from the perspective of Democrats. The Senate races are going to be close, with one or two seats deciding control. Donald Trump could win reelection. Joe Biden could win, yet find himself with a narrowly Republican Senate and evenly divided House.
The Senate currently favors Republicans, slightly. Though they are statewide seats, and cannot be gerrymandered, the states themselves reflect the geographic sorting of people by ideology. Rural states are white, older, and more likely to lean Republican. There are more Republican states, though the balance is shifting towards Democrats. Consultants have to deal with the states as they are, not as the Senate might be with two more states or subdivided states.
The models predict a one- or two-seat Republican majority in the Senate. Even if the Democrats were to split the Georgia seats and capture another close race, a 50-50 Senate might be as difficult for a President Biden as a Republican Senate. The divisions in the Democratic Party are significant on major issues. In a close Senate, conservative and moderate Democrats would have a lot of influence.
Movement Slogans, the Base, the Voters, and Joe Biden
Movement slogans play well to the progressive base of the Democratic Party, especially younger college-educated voters. From “Defund the Police” to “We Stole this Land,” the slogans that float about social media energize that base. They want “15 Now!” (a higher minimum wage) and “Forgive the Debt” (student loan cancelation).
The Democratic voters, however, are not the base.
Among minority voters, particularly older Black voters, cutting police funding is unpopular. That’s right, “Defund” polls badly among Black and Latino voters. Defund the police is popular with younger voters, and it polls best with young, single, female, white voters. That’s not a winning demographic for either party.
The progressive base does not reflect the older, more conservative voting majority within the Democratic Party.
Joe Biden and his team know this important distinction and are running a campaign for the voters, not the activists. That’s going to disappoint and confuse the activists, but Biden’s team has demonstrated his approach works in the primaries.
To win the Electoral College, Biden has to flip some states that Hillary Clinton lost. These are “purple” states known for their moderate voters. Ohio and Pennsylvania are two examples. Yes, they have activists from the two parties, but largely these states are middle-class and moderate.
I expect Biden’s team is checking with focus groups and listening closely to local media.
Progressives want to vote against Donald Trump. Would they vote for one of the unknown third-party candidates over Biden? Unlikely. The defeat of Donald Trump is more important to the progressives than (almost) anything else.
However, moderate voters might be scared away from the voting booths by what they perceive as radical policies and extreme “wokefulness” on the ballot.
Biden is going to say he opposes some pet progressive slogans. He will try to reassure everyone that he knows “Defund the Police” doesn’t mean what the words suggest. He’s going to say he supports “working towards $15” as a minimum wage. He’s going to sound moderate, while moving slightly to the left.
If the Biden team is correct, he will win a close election. There isn’t going to be a “Blue Wave” if progressives get too loud, though.
Word choice matters. The progressives are choosing slogans and labels that could backfire. I can envision a powerless Pres. Biden, unable to do much of anything, leading to yet more progressive frustration.
The post-election analyses seldom offer nuance. If the Democrats win the Congress and the White House, will the media report the loss of any House seats? The coverage will shape the narrative.
If Trump gains even a bit among minority and suburban voters, slogans might be to blame.