January 6, 2021, was not the culmination of Donald Trump’s narcissistic embrace of conspiracies. Instead, the day was a midpoint in Trumpism and the decline of the Republican Party’s elected leadership. It might be another five years or more until Trump is (mostly) exorcised from the Grand Old Party, and that’s an optimistic outlook.
The United States House Select Committee on the January 6 (2021) Attack accepted the unenviable task of trying to persuade multiple resistant audiences that something needs to be done as a response to the assault on the United States Capitol.
Consider the resistant audiences:
Republican politicians: Their own statements on and shortly after January 6, 2021, demonstrate that Republican leaders knew Donald Trump was culpable for the insurrectionists. The odds are slim that the committee hearings might persuade a meaningful number of national Republican leaders to repudiate Trump or Trumpist nationalism. Politicians follow voters; politicians rarely lead. To motivate GOP Representatives and Senators, the hearings would have to be perceived as potentially persuading voters.
Republican voters: There’s almost no chance the committee hearings will persuade Trump loyalists to accept his responsibility for January 6. But, maybe the committee has some evidence that would turn his supporters against Donald Trump. Imagine the effect of an audio tape revealing Trump holds his voters in contempt. Even such evidence might not suffice, sadly.
Trump-friendly media: Of the four resistant audiences to the committee hearings, the Trump-friendly media are the most likely to turn on Donald Trump and his loyalists. Media outlets face lawsuits from voting machine manufacturers, software vendors, and individuals. As evidence mounts that some aired claims were and are false, media companies might seek to shield themselves from legal liability. Personalities facing legal complications are also bad for business, and we know several Fox News Channel personalities were in communication with the former president before and on January 6.
Federal prosecutors: Prosecutors never want to appear forced into taking action by media coverage. The Justice Department needs to be viewed as above political pressure. Does the committee have evidence or testimony beyond what the Justice Department possesses? Such evidence might compel cases to be filed… while also raising questions about the competence of federal investigators. If a dozen or more Republican politicians start to grumble about Trump and his cronies, prosecutors might be less concerned that charges appear politically motivated.
The audiences looking forward to and optimistically enjoying the hearings primarily feature loyal Democrats and Democratic-learning voters.
Few Democratic voters need to be persuaded that Donald Trump, members of his administration, some Republican politicians, the participants in the rioting, and various media personalities committed crimes. Moderate, liberal, and progressive Democratic voters don’t understand why more than a year has elapsed without some high-profile criminal charges. Some of these voters watched the first hearing eagerly, hoping that these hearings will finally require legal consequences.
Democratic politicians have a long list of laws they’d like to change as a result not only of January 6, but of the 2016 election. These leaders don’t need to be persuaded by the hearings. They hope, possibly against the odds, that a significant number of the resistant audience will be moved. I agree with some changes sought by Democrats, though certainly not the more radical proposals.
Are primetime hearings good for the nation? I do not know, but I know the committee’s investigation and report are necessary steps toward preventing another January 6.
It’s not a waste of time for the historical record, but my nightmare is that we begin 2023 with the House in GOP control doing all kinds of damage to the institution. Meanwhile, Democrats will be able to say, “We did the right thing” from the sidelines, with committees being stripped from them, absurd hearings being convened… just an absolute disaster ahead of the Democrats.
This committee has to do something unexpected and prove beyond a doubt some of the claims directly against Trump. That’s a huge burden on the staff of this committee.
Unless there’s a tape of Trump saying, “I know I lost,” anyone telling him otherwise doesn’t prove he accepted that truth. Slate and other sources have explored that legal complication. Trump is prone to believe conspiracies, not merely parroting them. That’s hard for a reasonable person to believe. It’s easier to believe Trump is always conning others — but the fool was serious about bleach and COVID, among other things.
Maybe the committee will prove me wrong and unveil enough to change opinions with some truly astounding evidence. As if there wasn’t already enough known to discredit most of the GOP leadership relating to the January 6 events. Again, it would need to be something so huge it qualifies as “Breaking News.”
Sad times, but we’ve heard for years “This will be the moment Trumpism ends, and things change.” Still, we need this history recorded. Beyond that, I expect the worst, come the November elections. If anything, Trump loyalists will win, and a GOP Congress will have a commanding majority, with radicals holding many of the seats.
Persuasion in this political climate? Unlikely to happen.