Exit Polls and Data: What PA-18 House Race Suggests

Outside groups, the two major political parties, and individuals spent a lot of money on a campaign for the PA-18 Congressional District special election this month. The March 13, 2018, election was atypical for many reasons, from its origins in a sex scandal to the fact the district doesn’t exist anymore.

That’s right. Millions of dollars were spent on a race for a job lasting mere months. In November, the current PA-18 changes dramatically, with most of the current PA-18 destined to become PA-14, while PA-18 will be compressed into Pittsburgh. Vox offers both the old and new congressional maps for comparison. The new maps are logical and cohesive politically, based more on city and county boundaries than the maps before the March 13 election of Conor Lamb (D).

Any discussion of what PA-18 “means” for Democrats and Republicans in 2018, therefore, has to be taken with several grains of salt. The PA-18 that did exist was heavily gerrymandered for the GOP’s advantage — and that didn’t last as the district demographics changed over a decade. The new district for Lamb will be PA-17 and a swing district balanced between parties in terms of voter participation.

What we know from the exit polls, however, is bad news for the Republicans. (Then again, the new congressional map is horrible news, by comparison, likely costing Republicans three or more House seats.)

• Democrats are more passionate, and that makes them more likely to vote in November.
• Republican moderates aren’t solidly for Trump, but they are solidly anti-Nancy Pelosi.
• Democrats are engaged in a serious battle between establishment politicians and a liberal base.
• Republicans don’t know how to avoid bad candidates…

For a great analysis of the data, see Nate Silver’s column and the group chat on FiveThirtyEight. Republicans are in trouble. They aren’t passionate. They have lousy candidates. The Democrats hate Donald Trump.

The loss of party power has hurt Republicans more than it has hurt the Democrats… for now. Donald Trump was evidence that the establishment in the GOP has little ability to stop bad candidates. At least for 2018, Democrats appear to be avoiding the same trap, but that’s likely to change in coming years.

Lamb might win the new PA-17, meaning he will have flipped two districts in one year. That’s quite the accomplishment. He ran as a conservative. He won as a conservative Democrat, a throwback to blue-collar union candidates of the past. Will the more left-leaning base support Lamb in two years? We don’t know.

Republican voters are the party’s greatest problem. Right now, that base hurts the GOP and sends moderates to the Democrats.

Related articles

• Democrats have a clear path to retaking the House if these 4 things fall into place (businessinsider.com)
• A Special Election Tests Trump’s Eroding Support (theatlantic.com)