National and state-level polling suggest Donald Trump has a significant lead over Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race. After a series of Republican losses and worse-than-expected showings since 2016, one might expect GOP voters to hold Trump responsible. Instead, Trump is outperforming his 2016 polling against Hillary Clinton.
Voters rank the economy and immigration as top concerns, helping Trump against Biden. As CBS News/YouGov found this week:
HOW WOULD YOU RATE THEIR PRESIDENCIES? (REGISTERED VOTERS)
EXCELLENT/GOOD
- TRUMP: 46%
- BIDEN: 33%
MIGRANTS TRYING TO CROSS BORDER: POLICIES WOULD…
- TRUMP: 72% DECREASE MIGRATION (vs. 22% BIDEN)
- BIDEN: 50% INCREASE MIGRATION (vs. 9% TRUMP)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy/
There’s a 13 percent gap on the economy and a 50 percent gap on immigration. Those gaps are unlikely to close before November. The data don’t reflect the perceptions of the economy, but that doesn’t matter. Likewise, Trump sells a narrative that’s incomplete on immigration, yet it doesn’t matter to voters.
Trump appears to be walking back toward the White House with relative ease. As the New York Times notes, Biden’s extreme unpopularity, especially among independent voters, provides a narrative similar to that of the 2016 election. People voted against Hillary Clinton. In 2024, voters are turning against Joe Biden.
The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular
Donald Trump has the largest national lead in an NYT poll since first running for president in 2015.Only a quarter of respondents think the US is on a good path, while a majority of voters believe the economy is in a bad state.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/upshot/poll-biden-trump-2024.html
Presidents win or lose reelection on the economy, and Biden is getting pummeled by perceptions. Maybe it’s memories of lower prices or a booming housing market. The data suggest a booming economy, while voters describe the nation as nearing or in a recession.
Right now, I expect Trump to be elected president again. I only imagine two scenarios in which this doesn’t happen: Democrats present a better alternative, or Trump’s legal troubles finally register with more voters.
The prospect of a second Trump term worries me. I don’t believe he will be constrained by any norms. His authoritarian impulses are on full display, and his supporters cheer his heated rhetoric.
Yet, Joe Biden clings to the absurd delusion that he, and he alone, is best suited to challenge Trump.
Democrats seem to excel at denying probabilities. They denied even the possibility that Trump could win in 2016. Now, with overwhelming evidence that Trump might win again, Democrats continue to deny the obvious. Voters are rejecting Joe Biden.
