Despite the popularity of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other populist figures in the Democratic Party, I do not believe that “demography is destiny” accurately reflects long-term political trends.
Though we do know ethnic, religious, gender, educational, and regional groupings correspond to voting preferences, that our political parties and their consultants seek to emphasize these identity-based trends deeply concerns me. Hearing someone talk about “The African-American vote” or the “Hispanic vote” should be worrisome.
Also, “minority ethnic groups” in the United States have historically merged. There are notable exceptions, sadly, but a great many immigrant groups slowly came to be seen as generic. Admittedly, many of these groups merged with “white” — which is problematic. However, intermarriage is creating a curious mix of everything in the United States that might lead to a unique perspective.
These groups are not going to be forever on the left, regardless of their identities.
Left and right often have to do with economic experiences. Historically, a percentage of voters shift from the “left” to “right” with major life events: marriage, career changes, home ownership, and so on. As groups experience financial mobility, they tend to shift their political motivations.
A suburban parent, regardless of race or religion, naturally has different priorities than a single, young urbanite. A small business owner starts to view taxes and regulations differently than that person did as a college student or employee.
Our experiences change us and these experiences correlate to age, education, employment, and location.
What’s going to be interesting is to see how the GOP reinvents itself (or not) after Donald Trump. Will the GOP return to the center-right and rebuild its coalition? Or, has the GOP shifted long-term to a socially conservative party without a libertarian wing? If there is no libertarian or classically liberal segment within the GOP, the party will wither and fade into history. Deservedly so.
Will any of the smaller parties gain local or regional traction? Our system works against small parties and unaffiliated voters.
The changes happening in the EU are largely to the center-right and (sadly) extreme nativists of left and right. (“Social supports for ‘true’ Bavarians.” Joy. Not much better than “No immigrants in Italy!”)
Will the U.S. go one way while Europe goes another? It could happen.
The claims that demography will shift the United States to the left assumes a lot about correlations. If citizens believe they can and might become entrepreneurs, managers, and members of the upper-middle class, they then support business-friendly tax and social policies.
If, however, people feel they are stuck, with no mobility, then the progressive left will continue to expand in numbers and influence.
Too often the populists of the U.S. left misrepresent European models, which complicates any policy debates.
The calls to tax “more like Europe” are a bit off-base, if we include state, local, and federal taxes. Where we miss the mark is the lack of a VAT or at least national sales tax. Our inheritance and capital gain taxes are insanely low, at thresholds too high, too. Of the 12 nations with a wealth tax, eight have ended the test and the four remaining are trying to revise after poor collection results and high avoidance.
The highest marginal rate in the OECD is 55%, with an average top marginal rate of 45%. People don’t realize we’re not that far from other OECD nations in effective INCOME tax rates, corporate taxes, and so on. The problem is… we’re incredibly inefficient and in two areas, healthcare and education, strangely over-priced.
We won’t have the real debates on revenues that are needed, because too many upper-middle and upper-class (but not 1%) don’t want to lose their deductions and special breaks.
https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLE_I1
If we don’t address mobility, the progressives will continue to rise. That’s not demographics: it is economics.
Discover more from Almost Classical
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
