Bernie Sanders currently stands apart among Democratic presidential primary candidates. His lead is increasing, according to FiveThirtyEight and other polling aggregators, as we head towards Super Tuesday. Once California and Texas primary results are tallied, the leader will likely be the nominee of the party.
Sanders is unlikely to win an outright majority of regular delegates to the Democratic convention.
What happens when a plurality candidate secures the nomination of a major party? Ask the Republican establishment.
The divided moderates and establishment acceptable Elizabeth Warren are receiving more votes than Sanders. Whoever is left standing after Nevada and South Carolina will continue to receive more combined votes than Sanders… yet Sanders seems likely to be the plurality leader heading into the convention.
What does this mean for the Democrats?
Broadly speaking, Sanders takes positions that slight majorities support until they are presented as a package of plans with a unified price tag. Even his less popular positions have plurality support among voting-aged adults (not among likely voters).
Sanders versus Donald Trump in 2020 would pose some challenges for the Democrats. Promising higher taxes, more regulations, larger government, and significant reinterpreting of Constitutional questions seems likely to falter in a general election.
Wether Sanders is or is not a Democratic Socialist, as he self-identifies, is open to debate. As he is running, I’d argue he’s stretching the definition, and even Paul Krugman agrees. Bernie is not an actual socialist; he’s trying to redefine the term to be synonymous with social democracy.
Sanders wants to be called a socialist? That could hurt his chances in the general election.
The Constitution of the United States and the Bill of Rights present a list of negative rights, limits on the power and authority of government. This represents a different philosophy than positive rights, which suggest a government obligation to act. (I’ve written before, I dislike the labels used in political philosophy, since “negative” suggests a value.) Socialism is all about positive rights. Modern progressives are also quick to embrace positive rights.
I’m not sure how a candidate proposing fundamental philosophical change to the United States will perform. He could win, but I’m skeptical.
What Democrats must be most concerned about is how Sanders on the top of a ticket would energize conservative and libertarian voters. The Democrats might lose state and national elections they are more likely to win with a moderate presidential candidate. Texas Democrats already recognize that races they want to win could slip away with Sanders as their presidential candidate.
A majority of Democratic primary voters don’t, so far, support Sanders as their first choice. It’s unlikely a majority of Americans will, either.
Discover more from Almost Classical
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
