June 2018, What a Month!

June 2018 is the “Month that Changed Everything” after the 2016 election that changed everything. Hyperbole, yes, but for those following the Trump Era, it certainly seems like this month was particularly horrible.

And to top it off, a Democratic Socialist of America candidate is likely heading to the House of Representatives. Taking nothing away from this accomplishment, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez crushing 10-term incumbent Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th District in the Democratic primary reflects a depressing urban trend. Crowley was a leader in the party. He was well-funded (10:1 advantage). He was the establishment.

My concern is that Ocasio-Cortez and other urban socialists (see Seattle City Council) represent the same anti-establishment impulse embodied by Occupy and the Tea Party. They sound too much alike at time, even when their solutions to problems differ. It’s a 1968-style anger aimed at the previous generations.

Donald Trump did not win the early GOP closed primaries (Ted Cruz did, which is marginally better but now looking a whole lot better). Trump won those primaries by persuading angry non-Republicans to vote for him in open primaries. Likewise, the DSA candidates rely on Democratic primaries allowing them to run as Democrats, as Bernie Sanders did.

The parties are apparently chasing those voters, hollowing out the center even further.

Now, Trump has taken over the GOP. That resulted in policies the establishment GOP rejects: protectionism, uncontrolled spending (at least the GOP increased spending at a slightly slower rate), loyalty to allies, and many others. The Trumpian GOP is not republicanism but is now the imperial presidency revived. Disgusting.

The Democrats only look great, or at least acceptable to more moderates, because the Trumpian GOP isn’t conservative. It’s merely anti-liberal and anti-elite and anti-progress in ways traditional conservatism and classical liberalism were not. The list of conservatives and libertarian-leaning thinkers calling for the GOP to lose the House in 2018 keeps expanding.

The #NeverTrump movement is alive and well, except among GOP voters. The elites are walking away. The political establishment is too afraid to speak out against Trump or Trumpian Republicans — too many of whom pre-date Donald Trump. Why is Steve King of Iowa still in the Republican Party? Because the GOP has no moral compass.

If you care about libertarian values, classical liberalism, neo-liberalism, or traditional conservatism, you cannot align with Donald Trump. It’s not intellectually possible.

If the GOP doesn’t reform, and the far-left continues to make inroads within the Democratic Party, the only realistic outcome is increasing polarization.

In the 1960s and 70s, even into the 1980s, there were Conservative Democrats and Liberal Republicans. Those days are gone. It’s not gerrymandering, either: the Senate is as partisan as the House. These are statewide elections, not gerrymandered districts. The Great Sort and the weakening of parties magnifies this partisan social trend.

What is the GOP going to do? What will Democrats do? Will they each continue to shift towards the fringes? Probably.

The fiasco of Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court, which was not how Senate Republicans should have behaved, made matters worse. We want compromise, which means we want filibusters and we want reasonable confirmation hearings in a timely manner. Anthony Kennedy’s retirement comes at a horrible time for both parties; it would have been much better to have a vacancy with divided government to force a return to compromise.

The divides in this nation are getting worse. No leader seems serious about fixing those divides. We don’t even perceive the same problems, much less similar solutions to those problems.

No wonder so many voters (non-voters) are tuning out and giving up. Even in the Ocasio-Cortez victory, there were only 27,000 votes. People aren’t as engaged as the media coverage suggests. Instead, elections belong to the committed bases.

This month has been depressing. Things might feel even worse and more divided after November. I’m expecting both houses of Congress to be more evenly split, regardless of control. I do expect the GOP to hold the Senate, with a slightly better than even chance of Democrats gaining the House. But, the House is looking more difficult for Democrats each week.

And at least two and half more years of this… at least.