We vote against people and groups, rarely for a political leader in whom we believe.
Research and polling suggest negative partisanship now guides most voting in the United States. When voting isn’t negative partisanship, it is still likely that voters are acting against a candidate.
But wait, some rightfully protest. What about those who voted for Barack Obama and then for Donald Trump? Polling data suggest many of the Obama-Trump voters were voting against Hillary Clinton in 2016, not against the Obama legacy. Think about what that tells us about the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, because Donald Trump voters did not overwhelmingly like him or even want to vote for him. He was… not Hillary.
The Democratic Party in 2016 was seen as the Party of Hillary, just as today’s Republic Party is now (for better or worse) the Party of Trump.
In a few years, people sick and tired of Trump will vote against him, not enthusiastically for someone else.
There has been The Big Sort, too. We cluster ourselves in like-minded groups. The urban, suburban, exurban, and rural areas are more than population density labels. These are political rings, each populated by a majority (or at least plurality) of like-minded residents.
Rural and urban experiences leave us with different impressions of government and reinforce our views of “those people” out in the backwards boondocks or in the rat-infested cities. We really don’t understand people from the other regions and settings within the United States.
Statistically, we know population density predicts voting patterns better than most other variables. Those other variables also correlated. Educated? Suburbs. Less-educational attainment? Rural and urban-core residents. The highest income earners live in exclusive suburbs and gentrified city blocks near parks and nice amenities.
We look to the other, and vote against them. Whatever that means.
Our differences seem to be increasing. Party-line voting has increased, in Congress and among voters. Compromise is unacceptable. We don’t even want our children to marry someone from the other political party.
We don’t just dislike the policy proposals of the other party… we hate the members of the party, often without knowing many of them closely and personally. We hate what we do not understand, as studies of racism demonstrate.
When I look at my social media feed, I see friends insulting the right. I see friends insulting the left. I don’t see much tolerance. If I pause to think about, I probably would feel like I don’t belong among any group.
We’re tearing ourselves apart as a nation. We need some way to mingle. We need a way to expose ourselves to fellow citizens from places and beliefs unlike our own. We need to realize how similar humans are, no matter where they live.
Admittedly, I will vote against Trump, not for someone. I doubt there will be a Libertarian Party candidate with any hope of winning more than a percent or two of the national vote. I won’t agree with the Democrat on much. But, here we are.
How do we fix this tribalism that led to populism on the left and right? How to we fix the alienation that Donald Trump exploits day after day?
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