COVID-19 Pandemic Math and Self-Preservation

Apologies to my former students and my colleagues for committing the sin of oversimplification. I know I am using static values of population and not creating a proper detailed model of risk. Bear with me, because I’m making a different argument.

The argument: If I can reduce my risk, I will. If I can protect my children even a little, I will.

Those claiming that the COVID risk is being hyped by media, I disagree. The real problem is that reporters (and our political leaders) have failed to explain that risk isn’t uniform. Some ethnic groups face higher risks. Some regions face higher risks. Looking at the national numbers hides disparities in risk.

The basics:

• U.S. Population: 332,650,000 (as of August 10, 2021)
• Official COVID Deaths: 633,818 (not “excess death” data, so likely an undercount)
• Official Case Count: 36,780,000 (only positive tests)

Now, some percentages:

• Cases within U.S. population: 0.11057 = 11% of the population
• Fatalities (poor approximation): 0.001905 = 0.19%
• Fatalities per cases: 0.01723 = 1.72% of infections

Again, I understand the math isn’t right, technically. There have likely been more cases and more deaths. Let’s just keep it simple. Stay with me.

Normally, a “0.19% chance of death” would be considered negligible. Statistically, heart disease, obesity, and diabetes are greater risks to us individually.

“Averages” and “overall risk” don’t apply equally to all people. Neither mean nor median matter as much as raw data suggest.

We have control over COVID-19 and if we infect other people. We know it doesn’t threaten all people equally, too. You need to compound risk factors, meaning they should be multiplied instead of adding them. If you are older, obese, with heart disease and diabetes, those factors are multiplied to calculate risk.

If each risk factor doubled your chance of hospitalization or death, then six risk factors means a 64 times higher risk (2×2×2×2×2×2). Scary, right? That’s why you need to be careful around people with multiple risk factors.

The highest risk population faces a 5 to 15 percent risk of death, depending on location and living circumstances. That’s not minimal.

By comparison, a health 30-year-old has incredibly low risk of death from COVID-19. It’s as low as 0.00001 percent risk of death in some communities for that young healthy, vaccinated person.

I do not have a low risk, unfortunately. I’m diabetic. I’m considered slightly overweight (though that’s a different debate about BMI as a useless metric for fitness). I’m over 50. I have a history of asthma and bronchitis. Looking at CDC guidelines, I have anywhere from three to seven risk factors, including living in Central Texas at this moment.

I’m vaccinated and wear an N95 mask if I must run errands. But, I’m still anxious.

Wearing masks, social distancing, and getting vaccinated are not about your risk alone. Those precautions are for the individuals with a 5 to 15 percent risk of death from COVID.

Your risk won’t be my risk. That’s what we all need to remember: the other people around us.