Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are merely the two most outspoken Democrats opposed to the “Build Back Better” proposals currently stuck in legislative purgatory. Behind the scenes, many Democrats from moderate and Republican-leaning states and congressional districts recognize that BBB is a politically risky gamble that could cost Democrats seats in both chambers of Congress.
First, let’s all admit that Republicans run up the debt. Under Donald Trump, the annual deficit and national debt increased dramatically. Depending on the source and method of calculation, the debt increased by at least $7 trillion and possibly as much as $8.3 trillion during the single term of Trump. From the time he took office the day he officially left, the debt rose from $19.9 trillion to $26.9 trillion.
The annual deficit was $3.1 trillion for fiscal 2020, roughly 15 percent of gross domestic product, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
With inflation rising and voters increasingly concerned about federal spending, moderates are concerned that spending will be a winning issue for… Republicans. Yes, the irony is that Republicans aren’t actually deficit hawks when in power. But, elections are about messaging and perceptions.
Consider data reported by The Hill (September 29, 2021): 56 percent of voters consider the debt/deficit and inflation major concerns. More Independents were concerned than Democrats, but only a third of Democrats weren’t “seriously concerned” about the deficit spending.
Yes, the Build Back Better plan proposed by Pres. Biden and Congress, via reconciliation, has elements that poll well across party affiliation. However, when potential costs are included in polling, things change. Support for BBB falls as more of what is included is mentioned within polling prompts, too. Three items poll above 40 percent even with their costs stated: childcare, college, and family leave.
As I read the legislative proposals, which are only talking points and suggestions, for now, the $3.5 Trillion Build Back Better actually costs $7 to 9 trillion.
How can a $3.5 trillion bill actually cost $9 trillion?
The higher realistic costs are because of some (common) Congressional games reducing what is called the scored outlays.
The CBO and Congress score spending and revenues within set timeframes, so revenues are “front-loaded” in legislation, while outlays are placed at the end… and, worse, these are assumed to expire. To make the $3.5 trillion number work, the child care, family leave, and college benefits all magically vanish (“sunset”) after a few years, thereby reducing their costs on paper. In reality, there’s little to no chance of such programs being terminated once in place.
When given various economic projections, with the likely extensions of provisions, support for Build Back Better tumbles among independents and moderates.
The CBO models assume that higher tax rates on the highest incomes are adopted and work as planned. The CBO assumes state and local tax (SALT) deductions will not be renewed, yet Democrats from high-cost states want to remove the current SALT caps. The CBO also assumes higher corporate taxes.
The current CBO models still show debt reaching 120% of GDP.
Only with higher taxes on everyone earning more than $75,000 does the math work. Much higher taxes at the high end and moderately higher for other brackets.
With Biden polling below 50 percent approval and the BBB proposal’s popularity limited to the Democratic base when costs are mentioned, Manchin, Sinema, and other moderates are doing some basic math.
No other Democrat would win the West Virginia Senate seat Manchin currently occupies. Sinema might lose in an Arizona Democratic primary, but anyone to the left of her colleague Mark Kelly would lose in the general election. With both Senators not standing for reelection until 2024, they are betting voters move beyond this year’s budget debate to other concerns.
Republicans will focus on the cost of every program Pres. Biden proposes. Democrats will focus on the potential benefits. Right now, we don’t know which argument will be decisive in close elections.
I am expecting 2022 to be good for Republicans, giving them control of both chambers. If their message is a winning strategy, it could be a wave election.
Moderates likely have their own polling, which might explain their positions.
