President Joe Biden’s first year in office was not so good. Our collective 2021 was arguably very bad, indeed. Data, as well as political and cultural trends, suggest 2022 might indeed be Biden’s Annus horribilis.
Let us acknowledge his successes, whether we agree with their consequences or not. In fact, most of the accomplishments of this president and the Democratically controlled Congress are items with which I disagree. Still, Biden and the Democratic leaders deserve credit for:
- Passing additional $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief measure in March, which likely added to inflationary pressures.
- Signing the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill in November, which included $550 billion of previously planned expenditures.
- Confirming record numbers of judicial appointments, with 40 confirmations compared to Trump’s 18, a number that might shift legal trends nationally.
- Signing a $768 billion defense authorization, over Department of Defense recommendations to reduce spending.
- Reversing nearly 40 Trump administration executive orders and regulatory interpretations, demonstrating why government by EO is ephemeral.
- Using administrative power to raise wages for many workers, setting a $15 hourly minimum for federal contractors.
- Taking a stronger diplomatic stance against China and Russia.
- Exiting Afghanistan, however messily that was done.
There’s more, too. Compared to most presidents, notably Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, Biden should be receiving a lot of credit from Democratic voters and policy influencers. Instead, his approval even among Democrats has been falling. Objectively, this does not seem fair, as the Biden administration has done more in one year than his two recent Democratic predecessors. And he did this with the slimmest of Congressional majorities and no broad policy mandates from voters.
Early Choices, Lasting Consequences
No other choice is as consequential for a president as the selection of a Chief of Staff, and Biden chose poorly. The announcement that Ron Klain would serve as White House Chief of Staff reassured progressives, but signaled that moderates in Congress would be largely ignored. It wasn’t surprising when Congressional moderates complained that the White House didn’t pay attention to their concerns.
Klain reaches out to the left and embraces progressive policy goals. Therefore, so does Biden. It’s been argued that every Chief of Staff serves as gatekeeper and policy promoter for the president. Klain has outsized influence, however, and he used it to suggest to Biden and progressives that despite slim majorities and no mandate, this president would join the “Three-Letter Club” of FDR, JFK, and LBJ.
Overconfidence trips most presidential administrations once or twice. The Biden administration trips several times each month. Ron Klain is largely responsibly for the mess at the end of 2021, having encouraged legislative overreach and stupefyingly optimistic scenarios for events affecting the nation and world.
Klain encourage the quick withdrawal from Afghanistan. He continues to suggest, via Twitter, that many economists are wrong to worry about inflation. He suggested to Biden that July 4 should mark “Independence from the Pandemic.”
Why is Ron Klain still Chief of Staff? Because Biden’s well-known for unwavering loyalty and optimism.
Ignoring Military Leaders
Afghanistan was, to borrow a military acronym, FUBAR. How could anyone argue it wasn’t a withdrawal “fouled up beyond all recognition” in every sense of the phrase?
I’ve written about the Afghanistan quagmire, arguing that military and foreign policy experts were correct: maintaining a small military presence (2000-2500) while actually nation building as the Peace Corps might would have helped stabilize the entire region. We did not engage in “nation building” in any serious sense. That would have been building schools, hospitals, water systems, and so on.
Biden could have reframed such a small force. He could have worked with allies to establish genuine peace efforts. Instead, we abandoned people who had helped the United States. The message was clear, and one Russian and Chinese leaders have taken to heart: the United States will not protect and defend some allies.
Vladimir Putin doesn’t take Biden seriously. Neither does Xi Jinping.
I am not a military hawk. I believe in cutting defense spending, reducing troop deployments, and changing our priorities. But, the disastrous exit from Afghanistan will have lasting implications.
Also, let us not overlook that Biden signed a massive defense reauthorization, spending more than what the Department of Defense requested. Congress treats the Defense budget like a slush fund. So much for new budget priorities.
Ignoring Skeptical Economists
The Biden team, especially Klain, loves to cite the “17 Nobel Economists” who support the Build Back Better reconciliation plan. They just ignore the significant number of economists and analysts challenging the Democrats’ rosy scenarios for BBB. Which economists signed a letter endorsing Biden’s BBB? Klain and company issue press releases reminding us:
The signees, who are all currently employed as professors at the nation’s top universities, include Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s husband George Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Peter Diamond, Robert Engle, Oliver Hart, Daniel Kahneman, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel McFadden, Paul Milgrom, Roger Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul Romer, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Christopher Sims, Robert Solow, and Joseph Stiglitz.
The list is not surprising nor does it persuade me. Anything Stiglitz supports, we need to assume it is flawed, as plenty of other economists and policy analysts have noted.
Inflation concerns were dismissed by the Federal Reserve and too many left-leaning economists. Inflation was not “transitory” and it will likely remain above 6% for several months. Federal outlays and Federal Reserve actions have allotted $13.7 trillion to pandemic-related relief and support so far, and that number might increase as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers. Of course spending and quantitative easing was going to exert inflationary pressures on the economy.
Ignoring Jeremy Siegel, who is a partisan, might be excusable, but he has not been a lone voice warning of inflation. At least three advisors to President Barack Obama have cautioned that inflation might last into 2022 or 2023. Larry Summers and Jason Furman seem to have been correct, though Furman understated the impact on middle-class voters.
Presidents need to hear and appreciate contrarian views, especially within a field such as economics. Also, not every “economist” is an economics doctorate and even within the professorate expertise is usually narrow. Economics is the study of allocation, but what and why you allocate is more important than the mathematical models. If you consider reducing inequality more important than economic growth, the mathematical models will differ.
Biden’s team had embraced progressive programs and aggressive economic intervention. Now, we should expect inflation.
Ignoring Epidemiologists and Bioinformaticians
Donald Trump was disastrous for the nation, particularly his failure to rally the national response to COVID-19. The pandemic coffin count rests at the feet of Trump and Trump loyalists.
However, do not excuse Biden and his advisors for mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic. Declaring July 4, 2021, Independence Day from the pandemic was absurd. Supposedly, this was a suggestion from Ron Klain. Again, why does he have a job?
The Biden administration failed to deliver on a testing program. Do not forgive this administration for ignoring respected epidemiological and bioinformatic models that predicted yet another winter wave of COVID-19. If I can locate and read models on variant replication, surely the president’s advisors have the same data.
The Omicron wave was coming. Nobody acted quickly. Reports of what might be Pi or Rho variants have emerged. Will we be prepared for those in 2022?
Laws and regulations already exist requiring data reporting from states. Why are those requirements not enforced?
Presidents can use federal authority to regular interstate and international travel. Biden has failed to implement serious testing requirements for travelers, however.
Biden, like Trump, is placing the economic short-term ahead of long-term stability. The CDC and FDA are political under Biden, no matter what anyone claims to the contrary. Trust in government isn’t going to recover after COVID.
Does anyone trust the federal government to deliver healthcare? It cannot provide a consistent health message on the pandemic.
Ignoring Polling Internals
Klain and other administration voices like to cite polling data suggesting broad support for a progressive agenda. However, they ignore more complex polls and some polling internals.
Independents and persuaded Republicans supported Biden for a return to normalcy. The pandemic was the first, second, and third priority. Ending the pandemic was and is key to these voters.
Instead, Biden’s team has been distracted, pushing a progressive agenda often with a message disconnected from daily pandemic-era life.
People support the concepts promoted by President Biden and his team. When costs are mentioned, the support falls. Would you like free government programs? The only costs will be rising inflation, higher fees, fewer choices, and hidden pass-through taxes.
If I ask my children, “Would you like ice cream?” they will cheer. If I add, “Then all you have to do is weed the back yard for six hours,” don’t expect the cheers to continue.
“Free” does not exist. Voters know that. What they want is an honest accounting for programs and changes to the tax code. Voters are skeptical of Biden proposals. Most voters do not believe the proposals will help the economy, with 56% doubting BBB is a good idea. Only a third of voters trust the Biden administration approach to economic concerns.
Trust in government keeps declining. From mismanagement of the pandemic to dismissing inflation concerns, polls reflect a souring mood towards the Biden administration and its plans.
After a year, you can no longer blame the past administration. The public assumes you’re in control.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of polls, 52.2% of likely voters disapprove of Pres. Biden on this last day of 2021.
2022 Looks to be Horrible
We will begin 2022 with political turbulence, especially the anniversary of January 6, 2021. Then, Congress will resume bickering over BBB, tax code changes, immigration, and the pandemic. There will be another variant or two of COVID-19. There will be inflation. There will be economic pressures on families. There’s not much optimism, and for good reason.
Biden chose Ron Klain as his Chief of Staff. Biden shifted to the left quickly, to the surprise of many in the chattering class. With midterm elections in 2022, Democrats (and Joe Biden) have little time to correct course.
I’m not sure any president could unify the United States. The Biden approach, however, has ensured divisions deepen and distrust increases.
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