Why Ukraine is Different

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24,  2022, will end in the destruction of Ukraine if we don’t take extreme measures.

The Ukraine conflict is different, something some of friends and colleagues don’t want to admit. This could easily end with Russia destroying one of the largest nations in Europe. I fear millions might die directly and indirectly from Vladimir Putin’s messianic crusade to recreate an idealized Russian Empire. I’ll expand on this after offering some ideas to slow the Russian aggression.

In the coming days, ideally within 48 hours, Pres. Joe Biden needs to set the tone for NATO’s likely entanglement. Allow me to offer a speech for the president.

What a President Should Say on Ukraine

Russian commanders, you will be held responsible for your actions in Ukraine. After this invasion is repelled, expect to face charges in an appropriate court of law. You have chosen to engage in an illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable military action.

Expect to be apprehended, tried, and convicted as complicit in this invasion.

Ukraine was not threatening its neighbors. It was not harboring terrorists. It was not engaged in international criminal activities.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation, seeking to exist peacefully with its neighbors. It is not an aggressor under any interpretation of international norms.

There is no credible evidence that Ukraine was planning to attack any recognized sovereign territory. The leader of Russia created the “breakaway republics” with planted Russian troops, Russian funding, and clearly under Russian control.

Leave immediately or the consequences for you individually will be grave.

I also have suggestions for stiff sanctions, though I do not believe Putin will respond to economic pressure.

Companies incorporated in or publicly traded on the exchanges of the United States should be given 48 hours to suspend all non-essential, non-humanitarian business in Russia and Belarus. Food, medical supplies, and household essentials would be exempt from this order.

These measures would be a suspension of trade, hopefully temporary, applying to all entertainment, business, communications, energy, and other goods and services. The EU nations should join the United States in this suspension of all non-essential, non-humanitarian economic activity.

Again, we will not and should not disrupt food, medicine, or basic sanitary goods and services, but all other activity will be suspended until all the territory of Ukraine are restored to sovereign rule and no Russian military presence exists within the internationally recognized borders.

Why Ukraine is Different

Returning to why this invasion of Ukraine differs from 2014 and the on-going conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, the simple answer is, “Putin believes he was to totally subjugate Ukraine with no mercy.”

Vladimir Putin has embraced the rhetoric of a religious crusade. Too many “experts” dismiss Putin’s religious rhetoric as performative, but it is likely genuine. I have no doubt that Putin considers Ukraine infected with liberal “sinners” who tolerate LGBTQ rights and worse. Putin hates what he calls Western decadence.

Putin believe Russia deserves greater respect from other nations, especially the G7 countries. Respect for Russia matters to Putin and his supporters. It’s also a rallying cry for many Russians. There’s a sense that people view Russian the way many in the U.S. mock the Deep South. Putin believes the key to being respected is to demonstrate strength.

Putin will destroy everything, every last person, to recapture land he considers Russian. Destroying 40 million people is just the cost of restoring Russia. Experts doubting Putin would let millions die don’t understand how little he values life.

Ukraine has 15 major nuclear reactor complexes. The nuclear risks are real. Putin could and would order strikes on nuclear facilities.

Ukrainians live and work throughout Europe, especially within Poland. More than 300,000 Ukrainians live and work in Poland, which has a visa-free border with Ukraine. Poland is the NATO member most at risk during this invasion, followed by Moldova, which already has its own “Russian” territorial issues.

If the Russian military struggles, expect Belarus, northern Moldova (Transdniestria), and other nations to get involved directly. China and India would not want Russia to fail and might take measures to support Russia during a prolonged conflict.

We cannot allow Russia to quickly invade and conquer an emerging democracy. Putin already believes we won’t respond. He surely wants to recapture other countries that were once in the Warsaw Pact.

In the coming weeks, we will see horrific images. What will we do in response?